Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc317…34c3 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$164 (-18%) realized −$173 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$321
other 16% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -31.2% -37.7% 25% 25% -34.0%
≤30d 16 -31.2% -37.7% 25% 25% -34.0%
≤90d 16 -31.2% -37.7% 25% 25% -34.0%
all 16 -31.2% -37.7% 25% 25% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 25% -34.0%
10% -43.7% 25% -40.4%
15% -49.1% 25% -46.1%
20% -54.1% 25% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$50 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage5d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 52¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $48 +$46 +97%
Michael Olise: 2+ assists Jun 23 $51 +$208 +405%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $71 +$78 +109%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $51 1h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $51 9h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $51 9h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $48 24h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $51 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 33h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $71 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $51 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $51 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $51 4d
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $51 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 5d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $51 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $51 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.30 · official $108.14 · 22 history records