trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -8.7% | -17.4% | 50% | 50% | -2.0% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +14.1% | +3.3% | 86% | 29% | +13.3% |
| all | 14 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 86% | 14% | +9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.3% | 14% | +9.6% |
| 10% | -18.0% | 14% | -0.9% |
| 15% | -25.9% | 14% | -10.5% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 14% | -19.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | No | 58¢ | 57¢ | $483 | $478 | −$4 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $194 | +$160 | +83% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 29 | $135 | −$133 | -99% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | May 22 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Wild vs. Stars | May 22 | $136 | +$154 | +114% |
| Will March 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | Apr 28 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) | Apr 28 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 6-12? | Apr 28 | $214 | $0 | +0% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? | Mar 10 | $24 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 25 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? | Feb 03 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese | Feb 03 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 03 | $19 | $0 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Feb 03 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2025? | Jan 07 | $23 | $0 | +0% |