Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc315…202f other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$188 (+14%) realized +$192 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$160
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$4
sports 35% +$181
crypto 17% $0
economics 4% +$1
politics 3% $0
world 3% $0
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% -2.0%
≤90d 7 +14.1% +3.3% 86% 29% +13.3%
all 14 +0.2% -9.3% 86% 14% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 14% +9.6%
10% -18.0% 14% -0.9%
15% -25.9% 14% -10.5%
20% -33.2% 14% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$68 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$478
Realized+$192
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage177d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 58¢ 57¢ $483 $478 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $194 +$160 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $135 −$133 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? May 22 $17 $0 +0%
Wild vs. Stars May 22 $136 +$154 +114%
Will March 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Apr 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) Apr 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 6-12? Apr 28 $214 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? Mar 10 $24 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Feb 03 $18 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $19 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.40 · official $478.40 (match) · 27 history records