Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc314…fbdc sports 391 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,537 (-8%) realized −$4,535 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%156W / 234L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$999est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days+$129
14 days−$13
30 days−$598
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$5,821
other 12% −$326
crypto 2% +$63
world 1% −$99
politics 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.3% -9.8% 48% 41% -7.3%
≤30d 74 -5.0% -14.0% 38% 31% -14.2%
≤90d 301 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 35% -17.9%
all 390 -9.9% -18.5% 40% 35% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 35% -18.5%
10% -26.3% 29% -26.3%
15% -33.4% 23% -33.4%
20% -39.9% 16% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$56 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$4,535
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses156 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$999
Open positions1
Markets (closed)390 / 391
History coverage220d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 390 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $180 $178 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $256 +$111 +43%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $354 −$73 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $301 +$49 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 −$59 -58%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $153 +$178 +117%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $152 +$34 +23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $315 −$163 -52%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $354 +$20 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $351 −$56 -16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $268 +$106 +40%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $19 −$18 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 −$4 -19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $709 −$283 -40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $352 +$198 +56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$11 -22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $284 +$80 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$72 +36%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$42 -81%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $152 −$18 -12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 −$32 -16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $119 +$56 +47%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 −$32 -32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$22 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $89 −$19 -21%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$24 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 −$4 -17%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 −$11 -35%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 −$20 -33%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $157 −$99 -63%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$41 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $117 −$33 -28%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$20 -49%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 +$56 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $172 −$66 -39%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 +$56 +137%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $58 +$66 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $257 −$82 -32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $241 +$7 +3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $104 +$40 +39%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $98 −$47 -48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $148 −$105 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $183 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 93¢ $367 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $54 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $281 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $354 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $350 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $42 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $331 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $153 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $186 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 34¢ $152 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $12 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $297 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $78 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 60¢ $295 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $351 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $351 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.86 · official $177.86 (match) · 1198 history records