Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc313…e128 sports 492 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$181 (+0%) realized +$115 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%188W / 300L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$1,531est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$4,857
other 3% −$1,018
crypto 0% −$216
world 0% −$54
politics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 40% -19.0%
≤30d 190 -15.3% -23.3% 34% 33% -23.2%
≤90d 488 -9.1% -17.7% 39% 38% -18.1%
all 488 -9.1% -17.7% 39% 38% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 38% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 38% -25.9%
15% -32.8% 37% -33.1%
20% -39.4% 36% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$117 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$463
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses188 / 300
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,531
Open positions4
Markets (closed)488 / 492
History coverage56d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 488 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $271 $323 +$52 (+19%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 54¢ $72 $85 +$13 (+18%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 48¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-5%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ 70¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 232 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $53 +$250 +467%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $347 −$18 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $128 −$126 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $129 −$36 -28%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 +$11 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $110 +$97 +88%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $175 +$140 +80%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $208 −$24 -12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $55 +$190 +344%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $118 −$25 -21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $55 −$54 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $170 −$23 -14%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $121 −$1 -1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $91 −$90 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $74 −$72 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $323 −$317 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $464 −$459 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $583 −$442 -76%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $215 +$125 +58%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $110 +$400 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $181 +$50 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $232 −$229 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $42 −$41 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $92 −$90 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $219 −$216 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $119 +$100 +84%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $68 −$18 -27%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $330 −$325 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $52 +$42 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $110 +$176 +160%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $199 −$194 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $562 −$556 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $136 −$134 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $152 +$125 +82%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $152 +$136 +90%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $91 +$96 +105%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $91 +$109 +119%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $244 −$240 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $273 −$270 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $201 −$198 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 52m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 55m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $19 57m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $44 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $18 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $37 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $18 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $37 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $18 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $118 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 8¢ $18 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 92¢ $535 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 22¢ $18 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $71 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 46¢ $18 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $18 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 22¢ $17 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ $18 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 17¢ $18 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 9¢ $18 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 91¢ $237 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 40¢ $37 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $201 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 33¢ $18 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $18 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 28¢ $18 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 12¢ $37 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $73 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 28¢ $43 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $463.04 · official $463.04 (match) · 1983 history records