Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc30f…b556
crypto · 511 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7,176 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,143 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$644
Realized−$7,143
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses335 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$3,023
Open positions6
Markets (closed)505 / 511
History coverage117d
Avg bet$901
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 6 History 505 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$70
14 days+$557
30 days−$1,050
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $136 $136 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $125 $125 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $134 $119 −$15 (-11%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $362 $0 −$362 (-100%)
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Eric Cole win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-05-08? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $239 $0 −$239 (-100%)
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Kolkata Knight Riders 52¢ 0¢ $2,458 $0 −$2,458 (-100%)
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants Lucknow Super Giants 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians Mumbai Indians 4¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Durham 42¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $679 $0 −$679 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1,272 −$256 -20%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $222 −$61 -27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $504 +$171 +34%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $79 +$3 +4%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $67 +$12 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $293 +$102 +35%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $75 −$9 -12%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $82 −$3 -4%
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 08 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 07 $346 −$70 -20%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1,509 +$171 +11%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $355 +$36 +10%
Will England win? Jun 06 $1,918 −$55 -3%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 04 $124 −$46 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 04 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 03 $1,006 −$50 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 03 $154 −$43 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 03 $601 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 02 $450 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 02 $462 −$10 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 02 $401 +$12 +3%
Will Eric Cole win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 31 $121 −$120 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $2,501 +$713 +28%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $3,700 +$408 +11%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $122 −$25 -21%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $8,385 +$311 +4%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $5,660 +$27 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $61 +$127 +206%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 24 $8,032 +$92 +1%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $2,479 −$645 -26%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $7,697 −$769 -10%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $125 −$59 -47%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $252 +$82 +33%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1,508 +$208 +14%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $4,867 −$16 -0%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $303 −$99 -32%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $1,619 −$109 -7%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $391 +$261 +67%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $79 −$36 -46%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $265 −$34 -13%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $5,175 +$489 +10%
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $62 −$60 -98%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $551 −$50 -9%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $2,343 +$145 +6%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $500 +$6 +1%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $500 +$4 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $254 +$52 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% −$9,872
crypto 23% +$481
other 10% +$2,089
world 0% +$161
finance 0% −$17
culture 0% −$6
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 79¢ $129 51m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 59m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 59¢ $209 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 52¢ $152 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $162 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 48¢ $185 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 49¢ $341 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $603 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 57¢ $161 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $222 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $675 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $504 2h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $83 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $394 31h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 59¢ $77 31h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 49¢ $67 31h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $66 31h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $75 32h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $69 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $293 33h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $94 33h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $69 33h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $136 33h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $79 39h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $78 39h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $123 39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $121 39h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $121 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +25.4% +13.5% 54% 46% -8.5%
≤30d 52 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 25% -10.9%
≤90d 448 -6.7% -15.6% 66% 23% -10.9%
all 505 -4.9% -14.0% 66% 25% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 25% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 13% -19.1%
15% -29.7% 9% -26.9%
20% -36.6% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $644.21 · official $644.22 (match) · 2251 history records