Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc30e…15a7 other 27 markets active 2d ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10,433 (+8%) realized +$10,433 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,008per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$2,181est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17,917
14 days+$8,577
30 days+$7,539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$24,062
other 49% −$16,524
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +30.1% +17.7% 54% 54% +12.2%
≤30d 22 +4.9% -5.1% 41% 41% -3.7%
≤90d 22 +4.9% -5.1% 41% 41% -3.7%
all 22 +4.9% -5.1% 41% 41% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 41% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 36% -12.9%
15% -22.4% 36% -21.3%
20% -30.1% 36% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$6,030) neutral
Persistence
early -26% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,872 vs −$4,870 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,433
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$2,181
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 27
History coverage25d
Avg bet$5,008
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $282 −$278 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,188 +$1,100 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$503 +246%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,022 +$1,100 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3,207 +$8,830 +275%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,568 −$5,500 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6,030 +$6,676 +111%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,533 −$1,512 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10,333 +$11,538 +112%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $39,451 −$24,300 -62%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $19,942 +$19,990 +100%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 07 $16,301 −$16,257 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by W Jun 07 $6,558 −$6,504 -99%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 07 $4,194 −$4,157 -99%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 07 $3,502 −$3,483 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo Jun 07 $51 −$50 -97%
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 07 $5,032 +$725 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5,059 +$20,387 +403%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $72 −$70 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $992 −$968 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 40¢ $996 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $282 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,288 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $681 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $707 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 19¢ $512 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $204 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,122 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 88¢ $1,926 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 88¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 88¢ $4,573 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 88¢ $202 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 88¢ $5,321 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 94¢ $9 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 94¢ $4 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $158 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $20 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $0 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $11 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $19 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $38 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $830 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $1,104 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 448 history records