Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc30d…c27e other 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$569 (-3%) realized −$573 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%103W / 95L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$166
7 days−$144
14 days−$137
30 days−$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$114
sports 36% −$46
world 7% −$422
economics 4% −$14
crypto 2% +$118
culture 1% −$6
politics 0% +$5
finance 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -29.9% -36.6% 31% 31% -22.2%
≤30d 37 -24.0% -31.2% 35% 32% -19.9%
≤90d 52 -17.3% -25.2% 46% 42% -6.2%
all 198 -10.7% -19.2% 52% 43% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 43% -11.8%
10% -26.9% 36% -20.2%
15% -34.0% 27% -28.0%
20% -40.5% 18% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$37 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$573
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses103 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)198 / 202
History coverage173d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 19¢ 20¢ $194 $198 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $61 +$37 +62%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$9 +29%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$40 +79%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$148 +146%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $65 −$44 -67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $53 −$30 -57%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $16 +$34 +223%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $35 +$65 +188%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$51 +104%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $57 −$19 -34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $31 +$51 +165%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $93 −$92 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $189 +$97 +51%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $63 +$37 +59%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $121 +$51 +42%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 28 $696 −$143 -21%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on May 14 $232 +$40 +17%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on May 14 $26 −$3 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 13 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $840 +$375 +45%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $335 +$51 +15%
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? Apr 01 $34 −$34 -100%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $10 +$2 +16%
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $10 +$3 +29%
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $10 +$2 +22%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $10 +$3 +26%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ultra Prime (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 26 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 56m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $15 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $35 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $30 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $20 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $102 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 28h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 11¢ $21 28h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 21¢ $21 28h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $44 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $0 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $0 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $0 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $8 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $2 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $2 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $16 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $2 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $8 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.50 · official $197.50 (match) · 697 history records