Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C3 0xc30b…f9bc crypto 57 markets active 20h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$38 (+10%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%34W / 22L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$27
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +10.8% +0.3% 61% 59% -2.8%
≤30d 56 +10.8% +0.3% 61% 59% -2.8%
≤90d 56 +10.8% +0.3% 61% 59% -2.8%
all 56 +10.8% +0.3% 61% 59% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 59% -2.8%
10% -9.3% 54% -12.1%
15% -18.1% 45% -20.6%
20% -26.1% 38% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses34 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 35¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$8 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $13 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $12 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $7 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $7 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $8 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $8 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $9 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $7 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.73 (match) · 122 history records