Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc30a…9833 sports 488 markets active 4d ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-3%) realized −$68 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate56%270W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$46
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$18
crypto 15% −$51
other 12% −$57
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -25.3% -32.4% 33% 33% -42.2%
≤30d 266 -13.3% -21.5% 56% 19% -12.8%
≤90d 474 -15.0% -23.1% 55% 17% -14.2%
all 484 -14.7% -22.8% 56% 18% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 18% -14.3%
10% -30.2% 11% -22.5%
15% -37.0% 7% -30.0%
20% -43.1% 5% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses270 / 214
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)484 / 488
History coverage119d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 484 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $21 $8 −$14 (-65%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 122 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$11 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$8 +90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -28%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +61%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2 $0 +10%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $1 +$1 +91%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1 +$1 +145%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 05 $8 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -48%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 05 $1 +$1 +73%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$1 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -48%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 04 $1 −$1 -51%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Gamers Club L Jun 04 $6 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 04 $3 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Team Eclipse (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Sta Jun 04 $3 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $3 $0 +7%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 −$1 -49%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $2 −$1 -49%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -48%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 04 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 04 $6 −$1 -9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 91¢ $17 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $2 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 7d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 29¢ $1 8d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 8d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY LOS 32¢ $1 8d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Misa Esports 28¢ $1 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 5¢ $1 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.45 · official $30.48 (match) · 1144 history records