Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc305…69b3 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,713 (-42%) realized −$5,712 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,946per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 466d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 44% −$6,036
crypto 44% +$348
politics 11% −$37
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 1 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 1 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
all 3 -32.2% -38.7% 33% 0% -47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.7% 0% -47.9%
10% ← realistic here -44.5% 0% -52.9%
15% -49.9% 0% -57.5%
20% -54.8% 0% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$348 vs −$3,036 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$5,712
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage466d
Avg bet$1,946
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 Jun 19 $1,499 −$37 -2%
Solana all time high before 2026? Dec 13 $5,951 +$348 +6%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 12 $6,036 −$6,036 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 SELL No 90¢ $1,463 25h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $98 21d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $100 21d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $100 21d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $100 21d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $100 21d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 92¢ $96 26d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 92¢ $100 26d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 92¢ $100 26d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $100 26d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $100 26d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $100 26d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $100 26d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $100 26d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $100 26d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $100 26d
Solana all time high before 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6,299 188d
Solana all time high before 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5,951 223d
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? BUY No 95¢ $6,036 466d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.27 · official $98.27 (match) · 26 history records