Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C3 0xc305…d80d other 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$916 (+0%) realized +$915 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate20%26W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$1,585per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$27
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$191
politics 33% −$81
sports 15% +$766
world 2% −$4
economics 1% −$2
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$6
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 28 -7.2% -16.1% 7% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 73 -1.5% -10.9% 8% 4% -9.2%
all 130 +3.3% -6.5% 20% 15% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 15% -9.1%
10% -15.5% 15% -17.8%
15% -23.6% 13% -25.8%
20% -31.1% 12% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,399) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$15 · ×6.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$362
Realized+$915
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses26 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,585
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $360 $362 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $1,480 −$2 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,988 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,016 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,534 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,317 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $5,459 −$6 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,115 −$6 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,399 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 08 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $7,428 −$9 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $3,612 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2,844 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,847 −$3 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $566 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $1,160 +$3 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,821 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $5,801 −$6 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $79 +$68 +86%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,031 −$3 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $3,023 −$4 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $3,865 −$4 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $3,173 −$4 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $1,441 +$894 +62%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $3,833 −$5 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $1,299 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 26 $1,675 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $1,716 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 25 $1,707 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $6,139 −$6 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $2,271 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $4,321 −$4 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $4,768 −$5 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $4,132 −$4 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,383 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,476 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $997 28m
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $998 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $632 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $633 5h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $608 6h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $609 7h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $650 2d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $651 2d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $348 2d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $348 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $870 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $872 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $720 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $721 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $410 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $410 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $738 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $739 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,015 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,016 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,014 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,016 9d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,014 9d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,016 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,017 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,019 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $360 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,376 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,378 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,367 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.63 · official $361.63 (match) · 459 history records