Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc303…df04 crypto 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,775 (-1%) realized −$1,775 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate76%71W / 23L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,438per market
Trades / day135.9pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$2,887
other 6% +$352
sports 4% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -2.1% -11.4% 76% 38% -11.1%
≤30d 94 -2.1% -11.4% 76% 38% -11.1%
≤90d 94 -2.1% -11.4% 76% 38% -11.1%
all 94 -2.1% -11.4% 76% 38% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 38% -11.1%
10% -19.9% 17% -19.7%
15% ← realistic here -27.6% 7% -27.4%
20% -34.7% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,359) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$694 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,775
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses71 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1,438
Trades / day135.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $556 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $736 −$119 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $600 +$79 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $563 +$38 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $532 +$29 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $469 +$63 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $503 −$22 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $467 +$24 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $442 +$25 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $170 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $407 +$33 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $151 −$49 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $362 +$25 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $331 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $331 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $321 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $311 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $90 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$14 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $14,667 −$14,450 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1,520 +$339 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $12,508 +$1,826 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $11,076 +$1,405 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $6,510 +$141 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $8,910 +$2,117 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $7,194 +$1,679 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $6,547 +$731 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $6,172 +$330 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5,542 +$660 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $3,461 +$162 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $4,787 +$578 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4,578 +$275 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3,618 +$292 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3,421 +$330 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $2,816 +$261 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $506 +$96 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2,018 −$41 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,004 +$72 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1,005 +$76 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1,003 +$41 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,359 +$144 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $351 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $301 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $806 +$94 +12%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $242 +$102 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $654 +$56 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $611 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 797 history records