Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:43:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C3 0xc301…3996 other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$110 (+1%) realized +$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate27%20W / 55L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 67% −$14
other 15% +$12
politics 15% −$9
sports 1% +$119
crypto 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +10.3% -0.2% 14% 14% -5.0%
≤30d 19 +9.7% -0.7% 16% 11% -7.3%
≤90d 61 +13.2% +2.4% 26% 21% -7.4%
all 75 +11.3% +0.7% 27% 19% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 19% -9.1%
10% -8.9% 19% -17.8%
15% -17.7% 19% -25.7%
20% -25.8% 16% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×6.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses20 / 55
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage597d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $106 $107 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $33 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $14 +$10 +73%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $206 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $23 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $9 +$12 +124%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $163 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $166 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $327 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $170 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $160 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 26 $154 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $159 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $159 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 24 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $159 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 23 $155 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $323 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $153 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 17 $158 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $165 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $168 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $167 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $164 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $155 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 +$7 +86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 +$15 +165%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $16 +$10 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 3h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 23h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 24h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $14 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 4d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 4d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $106 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 11d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 17d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 17d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 19d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.19 · official $161.19 (match) · 285 history records