Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc2ff…ce1c
other · 297 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$4,558 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,292 · open +$1,047
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37,294
Realized+$3,292
Unrealized+$1,047
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses114 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions188
Markets (closed)188 / 297
History coverage8d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day407.8
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 188 History 188 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,431
7 days+$3,287
14 days+$3,292
30 days+$3,292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $19,575 $21,116 +$1,541 (+8%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 +$0 (+0%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $193 $192 −$1 (-1%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 93¢ $189 $186 −$3 (-2%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $186 $185 −$1 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $182 $183 +$1 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 89¢ $189 $178 −$10 (-6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $174 $175 +$1 (+1%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $176 $172 −$4 (-2%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $176 $169 −$7 (-4%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 88¢ 82¢ $176 $165 −$11 (-6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 82¢ $180 $164 −$16 (-9%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 88¢ 72¢ $176 $144 −$32 (-18%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 85¢ 66¢ $170 $132 −$38 (-22%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Antoine Semenyo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +1327%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -1027%
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 12 $87 −$91 -105%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Jun 12 $1 −$9 -1027%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Anora be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Jun 12 $22 −$88 -402%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $362 +$98 +27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 12 $300 +$7 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 12 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $495 +$99 +20%
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 12 $395 +$1 +0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $526 +$96 +18%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 12 $1,098 +$197 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 12 $232 +$1 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 12 $645 +$6 +1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $195 +$1 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $559 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 12 $1,003 +$1 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 12 $93 $0 +0%
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $396 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $450 $0 +0%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,073 +$48 +4%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $395 +$100 +25%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $593 +$100 +17%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $93 $0 +0%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 12 $189 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 12 $579 +$8 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $90 +$2 +2%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $99 $0 -0%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 12 $508 +$99 +20%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $345 +$2 +1%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 12 $99 +$198 +200%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Jun 12 $98 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $198 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 12 $718 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 12 $1,342 +$9 +1%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 12 $291 +$46 +16%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $181 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $546 +$97 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $522 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $760 +$98 +13%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $92 +$4 +4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $762 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% +$2,689
world 17% +$644
crypto 13% +$314
finance 6% +$747
economics 5% +$192
sports 3% +$41
culture 1% $0
tech 1% +$3
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 98¢ $20 0m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $20 1m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $88 1m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $97 2m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 98¢ $39 2m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $20 3m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $10 3m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $10 3m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 98¢ $39 4m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $10 4m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $29 4m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 98¢ $39 6m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $20 7m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $10 7m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $10 7m
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $13 8m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 98¢ $29 8m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $29 9m
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $13 10m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 98¢ $49 10m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $49 11m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 12m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 98¢ $49 12m
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $49 12m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $99 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $99 18m
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $99 18m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $79 40m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 43m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $25 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 +11.6% +0.9% 62% 18% -4.0%
≤30d 188 +10.9% +0.3% 61% 17% -4.1%
≤90d 188 +10.9% +0.3% 61% 17% -4.1%
all 188 +10.9% +0.3% 61% 17% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover407.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.3% 17% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -9.3% 8% -13.3%
15% -18.0% 6% -21.7%
20% -26.1% 5% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,294.02 · official $37,293.18 (match) · 3500 history records