Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:49:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc2fe…71d6 sports 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 566d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,228 (+12%) realized +$6,228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%60W / 56L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$414est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$549
7 days+$1,383
14 days+$2,178
30 days+$2,925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$2,648
politics 14% +$2,821
crypto 13% −$56
world 6% +$702
other 2% +$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.7% +2.9% 60% 60% +5.8%
≤30d 23 +14.5% +3.6% 61% 61% +6.2%
≤90d 52 +14.1% +3.2% 62% 62% +2.0%
all 116 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 47% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 47% +1.1%
10% -21.0% 41% -8.6%
15% -28.6% 35% -17.4%
20% -35.6% 26% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$567) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$316 vs −$226 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

566d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses60 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$414
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage566d
Avg bet$465
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,318 +$375 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,072 +$352 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $86 +$94 +110%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $610 −$524 -86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,520 +$931 +61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,150 +$370 +32%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $531 +$618 +116%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,170 −$638 -54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $513 −$17 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,002 +$185 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $318 +$685 +216%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $278 +$39 +14%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,001 −$723 -72%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $387 −$204 -53%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $130 −$45 -34%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $601 +$404 +67%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $401 +$318 +79%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $1,478 +$954 +64%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $1,001 +$477 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $75 −$64 -85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $699 −$529 -76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $540 −$11 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $289 +$487 +168%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $213 +$76 +36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $161 +$52 +32%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $531 −$370 -70%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 09 $321 +$225 +70%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $233 +$88 +38%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $159 +$74 +47%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $501 −$342 -68%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $500 +$309 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $204 +$214 +105%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $427 −$218 -51%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $276 +$150 +54%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $201 +$75 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $567 +$503 +89%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 13 $372 +$193 +52%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 13 $296 +$76 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $256 +$40 +16%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 13 $501 −$501 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $230 +$31 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 29 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 29 $27 +$43 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 29 $20 +$7 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 29 $280 −$259 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 75¢ $273 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $749 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $668 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 50¢ $670 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $648 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $854 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $1 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $569 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 32¢ $570 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $2 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $499 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $178 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $75 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 8¢ $86 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $608 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 62¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $1,517 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1,520 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 75¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 75¢ $1,149 6d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $1,148 6d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $531 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 32¢ $532 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $1,169 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 67¢ $496 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $513 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 500 history records