Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C2 0xc2fe…10e3 crypto 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$272 (+10%) realized +$259 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%69W / 86L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$127
14 days+$115
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$240
other 24% +$186
sports 6% −$64
politics 2% −$62
world 1% −$37
weather 0% −$11
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +9.5% -0.9% 47% 47% +35.8%
≤30d 26 -20.3% -27.9% 35% 35% +14.0%
≤90d 155 -14.6% -22.7% 45% 41% -1.7%
all 155 -14.6% -22.7% 45% 41% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 41% -1.7%
10% -30.1% 36% -11.1%
15% -36.9% 31% -19.7%
20% -43.1% 26% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$259
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses69 / 86
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)155 / 161
History coverage47d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $25 $43 +$18 (+72%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$33 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$18 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$43 +57%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$35 +172%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Trump say "Inflation" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in c May 22 $20 +$22 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 21 $19 −$18 -96%
Will Trump say "Braggadocious" in May? May 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Trump say "Oil" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Trump say "Cut rate" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Recession" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in May 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026? May 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 21 $2 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $50 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $152 +$10 +6%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $33 +$5 +14%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $5 28m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes $6 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will N BUY 12¢ $15 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $8 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 6d
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Ka BUY $8 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Wil BUY $10 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 9d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $76 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 11d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $10 11d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $6 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win o BUY $21 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.11 · official $43.11 (match) · 275 history records