Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2f8…3e39 world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$2
other 17% $0
politics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 25% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.9%
all 29 -1.7% -11.1% 41% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage448d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $46 +$1 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $30 +$2 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $42 −$2 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $50 −$2 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $41 −$2 -5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $44 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $86 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $13 $0 +4%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 24 $0 $0 -50%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $14 $0 +2%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $6 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on March 28? Mar 27 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 37m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $43 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $16 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $16 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $9 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $11 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $13 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $30 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $40 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $42 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $38 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $38 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $38 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $26 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $12 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $42 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $43 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 74¢ $26 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records