Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2f6…a212 other 259 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 247L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$30
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$51
sports 25% −$21
culture 8% −$9
economics 5% −$7
politics 5% −$5
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% +$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)259 / 259
History coverage136d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 259 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $326 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $122 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $894 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $354 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $624 −$2 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $280 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $432 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $325 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $760 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $650 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $244 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $276 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $356 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $300 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $311 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $436 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $487 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $473 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $363 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $521 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $351 +$1 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $435 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $147 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $206 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $136 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $709 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 2h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 10h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 11h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 13h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 14h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 20h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 22h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 23h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 25h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 26h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 28h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 35h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 37h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 39h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 41h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 42h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 44h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 45h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 47h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1439 history records