Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2f6…c8e7 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$87 (-32%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$26
other 31% −$25
world 4% +$24
sports 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.7% -20.1% 43% 43% +3.0%
≤30d 14 -36.1% -42.2% 29% 29% -25.5%
≤90d 14 -36.1% -42.2% 29% 29% -25.5%
all 17 -27.1% -34.0% 29% 29% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 29% -21.3%
10% -40.3% 29% -28.8%
15% -46.1% 29% -35.7%
20% -51.4% 29% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$14 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage136d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 96¢ 91¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$28 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$25 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$17 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $28 +$22 +76%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11AM ET May 28 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1PM ET May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET May 27 $17 +$31 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3PM ET May 26 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1PM ET May 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12PM ET May 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-02? Feb 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $10 +$24 +245%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-01? Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 43h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 18¢ $9 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 6d
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 96¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $17 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $43 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $0 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.07 · official $9.07 (match) · 44 history records