Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2f3…ab36 crypto 10 markets active 7d ago coverage 175d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-83%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$75
crypto 28% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-64.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -67.8% -70.9% 0% 0% -59.3%
≤30d 3 -67.8% -70.9% 0% 0% -59.3%
≤90d 4 -75.8% -78.1% 0% 0% -93.7%
all 10 -61.1% -64.8% 10% 10% -89.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.8% 10% -89.8%
10% -68.2% 10% -90.8%
15% -71.3% 10% -91.7%
20% -74.1% 0% -92.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage175d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 05 $61 −$61 -100%
Paradex FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 16 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 16 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Jan 07 $5 −$1 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records