Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2f1…c337 crypto 464 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,127 (-6%) realized −$2,124 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%222W / 236L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$127
14 days+$29
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,210
other 0% −$10
sports 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +45.5% +31.7% 68% 68% +15.9%
≤30d 58 -12.1% -20.4% 40% 40% -8.2%
≤90d 203 -15.6% -23.6% 41% 39% -17.6%
all 458 -10.2% -18.8% 48% 44% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 44% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 39% -25.0%
15% -33.6% 33% -32.3%
20% -40.2% 23% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$56 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$2,124
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses222 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)458 / 464
History coverage114d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$9 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $60 +$41 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$6 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$7 +351%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$27 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$7 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$9 +181%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$11 +550%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$18 +57%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$29 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$30 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$19 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $62 −$13 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $41 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $11 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.12 · official $12.12 (match) · 2839 history records