Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C2 0xc2f0…7ab9 world 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$320 (-4%) realized −$377 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$424per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$6,455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$13
world 16% −$377
tech 3% −$10
economics 0% +$2
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -22.9% -30.3% 17% 17% -43.2%
≤30d 6 -22.9% -30.3% 17% 17% -43.2%
≤90d 6 -22.9% -30.3% 17% 17% -43.2%
all 6 -22.9% -30.3% 17% 17% -43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 17% -43.2%
10% -37.0% 17% -48.6%
15% -43.0% 17% -53.6%
20% -48.6% 0% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$86 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$6,455
Realized−$377
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions13
Markets (closed)6 / 19
History coverage7d
Avg bet$424
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $4,962 $4,966 +$4 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,100 $1,109 +$9 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 50¢ 72¢ $40 $58 +$18 (+45%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 13¢ 21¢ $35 $56 +$21 (+61%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? No 4¢ 9¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+90%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 17 $203 −$10 -5%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 17 $160 −$31 -19%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -60%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $670 −$328 -49%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $100 −$49 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $1,004 1h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? SELL No 66¢ $192 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 5¢ $5 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $58 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $47 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $71 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $200 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 1h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 68¢ $203 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 38h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 44h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $1,102 44h
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL No 1¢ $3 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No 1¢ $2 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $1,104 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $251 3d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $50 3d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $100 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 36¢ $342 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 18¢ $51 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $1,104 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,454.95 · official $6,454.97 (match) · 42 history records