Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2ef…494b crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$104 (+3%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$78
14 days−$277
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$82
other 23% −$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +23.1% +11.4% 43% 43% -16.0%
≤30d 43 +26.9% +14.8% 51% 51% -18.3%
≤90d 43 +26.9% +14.8% 51% 51% -18.3%
all 43 +26.9% +14.8% 51% 51% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.8% 51% -18.3%
10% +3.8% 49% -26.1%
15% -6.2% 42% -33.2%
20% -15.4% 42% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$70 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage14d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $101 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $215 −$210 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $72 +$242 +336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $133 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $235 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $79 +$219 +277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $130 −$30 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$37 +142%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $308 −$304 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $301 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$51 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $46 +$38 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$40 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$13 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$103 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $129 −$70 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$64 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $232 +$72 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$41 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$56 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$39 +372%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $53 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records