Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C2 0xc2ee…611f crypto 1324 markets active 0h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$385 (+0%) realized +$385 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate81%1068W / 256L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$6,052
14 days−$795
30 days−$517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$484
politics 0% +$15
other 0% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 -23.4% -30.7% 63% 49% -42.3%
≤30d 906 -0.7% -10.2% 81% 68% -10.0%
≤90d 1302 +0.1% -9.5% 80% 66% -10.0%
all 1324 +0.4% -9.2% 81% 67% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 67% -10.0%
10% -17.9% 35% -18.6%
15% -25.8% 10% -26.5%
20% -33.1% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$54 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$385
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1068 / 256
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1324 / 1324
History coverage586d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1324 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $317 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $186 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $317 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $317 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $317 −$17 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $298 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $167 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $298 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $297 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $297 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $19 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2771 history records