Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2eb…6166 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-9%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day111.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$15
world 10% −$6
other 2% −$3
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -23.4% -30.7% 38% 15% -21.0%
≤30d 40 -23.4% -30.7% 38% 15% -21.0%
≤90d 40 -23.4% -30.7% 38% 15% -21.0%
all 40 -23.4% -30.7% 38% 15% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.7% 15% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -37.3% 8% -28.5%
15% -43.4% 5% -35.4%
20% -48.9% 5% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day111.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$6 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records