Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C2 0xc2ea…df21 sports 80 markets active 6d ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%44W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$91
14 days−$155
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$47
other 0% +$8
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -55.2% -59.5% 22% 22% -50.3%
≤30d 79 -3.4% -12.6% 56% 52% -10.9%
≤90d 79 -3.4% -12.6% 56% 52% -10.9%
all 80 -4.2% -13.3% 55% 51% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 51% -11.1%
10% -21.6% 46% -19.6%
15% -29.2% 42% -27.4%
20% -36.1% 32% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses44 / 36
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage103d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $13 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$12 +79%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $53 −$53 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $70 −$17 -24%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $20 +$10 +48%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID - Game 3 Jun 10 $19 −$19 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $8 −$8 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $14 +$23 +163%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $10 +$15 +143%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $18 −$8 -44%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$22 +107%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $52 +$8 +16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $32 +$13 +40%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7 −$5 -67%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $38 +$6 +16%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $25 +$5 +22%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $25 +$11 +42%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $15 +$10 +67%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $65 −$64 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $86 −$15 -17%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $71 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$7 +65%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $21 +$12 +57%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$9 +89%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $60 +$22 +36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $15 +$5 +34%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $109 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $27 −$15 -55%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $9 +$6 +76%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $26 +$12 +46%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10 +$7 +67%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $21 +$9 +43%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $31 +$39 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 71¢ $12 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 73¢ $13 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 49¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 48¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 98¢ $27 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 54¢ $15 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Global Esports 62¢ $53 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL NRG 31¢ $53 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 40¢ $70 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner SELL NRG 99¢ $30 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner BUY NRG 66¢ $20 7d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID - Game 3 BUY Dewa United Esports 51¢ $9 7d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID - Game 3 BUY Dewa United Esports 52¢ $10 7d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner BUY FULL SENSE 30¢ $8 7d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner SELL FULL SENSE 93¢ $38 7d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner BUY FULL SENSE 35¢ $14 7d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $25 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY M80 45¢ $8 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 45¢ $8 8d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY Leviatán Esports 40¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 56¢ $10 8d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $42 8d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 47¢ $20 8d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $39 8d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL FUT Esports 28¢ $0 8d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $22 8d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL FUT Esports 48¢ $22 8d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 65¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records