Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:19:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2e9…bf1f crypto 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$123 (+11%) realized +$121 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%34W / 37L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day141.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$100
sports 4% −$3
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (141 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 48% 41% -1.2%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 48% 41% -1.2%
≤90d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 48% 41% -1.2%
all 71 -0.2% -9.7% 48% 41% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 41% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 39% -10.6%
15% -26.2% 35% -19.3%
20% -33.5% 30% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses34 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)71 / 76
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day141.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 87¢ 94¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 59¢ 68¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 24¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $61 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$19 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $28 +$23 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$52 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $81 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.98 · official $118.05 (match) · 194 history records