Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:08:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc2e9…e288 crypto 520 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,549 (-2%) realized −$6,667 · open +$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate80%402W / 100L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$556per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$33,783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$4,521
other 41% +$11,849
world 8% −$6,562
tech 5% +$1,243
weather 0% −$335
culture 0% +$7
politics 0% −$42
sports 0% +$75
economics 0% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -8.2% -16.9% 74% 40% -10.2%
≤30d 113 -12.6% -20.9% 74% 31% -3.4%
≤90d 498 -7.0% -15.9% 80% 21% -9.2%
all 502 -3.0% -12.2% 80% 21% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 21% -9.1%
10% -20.6% 9% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -28.3% 5% -25.8%
20% -35.3% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$286 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$33,783
Realized−$6,667
Unrealized+$118
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses402 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)502 / 520
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$556
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 502 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 86¢ 86¢ $26,631 $26,749 +$118 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1,840 $1,834 −$6 (-0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 74¢ 81¢ $1,180 $1,304 +$124 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 47¢ $1,150 $930 −$220 (-19%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $700 $845 +$145 (+21%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $620 $615 −$5 (-1%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $559 $563 +$4 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $384 $381 −$3 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $330 $327 −$3 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $177 $177 +$0 (+0%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 2¢ 0¢ $49 $10 −$39 (-79%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $517 −$278 -54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11,182 +$516 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $83 +$17 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,683 +$17 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $170 +$75 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $473 −$239 -50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $189 +$11 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $260 +$125 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5,339 +$111 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $109 −$86 -78%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 12 $3,222 −$841 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $124 +$5 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $45 +$8 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,045 +$454 +43%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $250 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $227 +$26 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $901 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $61 +$14 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $297 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $452 +$35 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $77 +$17 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $427 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $227 +$30 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $300 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $201 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $375 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $36 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $301 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $326 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $503 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $128 +$24 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $152 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$17 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $4 31m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $239 31m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 79¢ $158 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 79¢ $158 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $294 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $627 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $323 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $279 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $706 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $195 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $9,767 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $726 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $4 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $693 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $990 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $34 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,782.71 · official $33,792.48 (match) · 3500 history records