Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2e5…b3a5 sports 273 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (217 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,585 (-5%) realized −$25,700 · open +$1,115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%132W / 374L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,654per market
Trades / day216.5pace
Fees−$4,366est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$43,908now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$14,054
politics 16% +$10,210
other 5% +$8,473
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (217 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-50.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 386 -63.5% -67.0% 18% 15% -32.6%
≤30d 506 -45.8% -50.9% 26% 24% -23.5%
≤90d 506 -45.8% -50.9% 26% 24% -23.5%
all 506 -45.8% -50.9% 26% 24% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover216.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.9% 24% -23.5%
10% -55.6% 21% -30.8%
15% ← realistic here -59.9% 17% -37.5%
20% -63.8% 14% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$693) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$694 vs −$395 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$43,908
Realized−$25,700
Unrealized+$1,115
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses132 / 374
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$4,366
Open positions14
Markets (closed)506 / 273
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$1,654
Trades / day216.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 87¢ 99¢ $11,791 $13,442 +$1,651 (+14%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 78¢ 98¢ $9,415 $11,886 +$2,471 (+26%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $6,482 $5,654 −$827 (-13%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $4,694 $4,662 −$31 (-1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $3,632 $3,821 +$188 (+5%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 75¢ 76¢ $2,919 $2,946 +$27 (+1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $1,122 $477 −$645 (-57%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $434 $389 −$45 (-10%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $307 $323 +$16 (+5%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $517 $281 −$236 (-46%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 35¢ 48¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+39%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 12¢ 12¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 43¢ 0¢ $1,444 $2 −$1,442 (-100%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 362 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $332 −$332 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $562 −$563 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Fisher College - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $733 −$735 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $320 −$320 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $187 −$187 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $333 −$333 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 15 $472 −$472 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $369 −$369 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,028 −$1,028 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $602 −$602 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $266 −$266 -100%
Will BetBoom Team win IEM Atlanta 2026? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Grou Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Ch Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $418 −$239 -57%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl Jun 15 $393 −$393 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $429 −$414 -96%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Jun 15 $1,910 −$1,775 -93%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 15 $173 −$173 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6PM ET Jun 15 $186 −$186 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs? Jun 15 $25 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $289 −$125 -43%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winne Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$37 -209%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $437 −$437 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? Jun 15 $531 −$666 -125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 12¢ $7 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $533 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 99¢ $594 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 99¢ $594 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 99¢ $594 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 54¢ $104 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 54¢ $55 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 49¢ $95 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 49¢ $3 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 45¢ $189 3h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 74¢ $78 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 75¢ $148 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 75¢ $456 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 87¢ $697 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 87¢ $699 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 87¢ $699 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 87¢ $699 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 82¢ $556 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 78¢ $53 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 85¢ $680 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 83¢ $667 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 84¢ $578 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 83¢ $634 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 83¢ $667 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 81¢ $651 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 79¢ $49 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 84¢ $427 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 81¢ $649 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 84¢ $45 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,907.62 · official $43,907.62 (match) · 3500 history records