Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2e0…8b02 sports 20 markets active 6d ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$68 (-15%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$44
14 days−$69
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$45
sports 44% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -40.7% -46.3% 0% 0% -41.9%
≤30d 20 -22.8% -30.2% 25% 20% -28.2%
≤90d 20 -22.8% -30.2% 25% 20% -28.2%
all 20 -22.8% -30.2% 25% 20% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 20% -28.2%
10% -36.9% 20% -35.1%
15% -43.0% 15% -41.4%
20% -48.6% 15% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$13 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage23d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $38 −$32 -84%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $54 −$2 -3%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 10 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -10%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $27 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 06 $86 −$82 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 06 $44 −$26 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 06 $53 +$75 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 06 $21 +$6 +27%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 −$7 -33%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $18 −$17 -98%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 19 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $6 −$1 -23%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $5 +$6 +127%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5 May 19 $6 −$4 -65%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 May 19 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 5¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $9 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $9 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $7 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 58¢ $7 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 45¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $10 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $7 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $43 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $44 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Philadelphia Phillies 85¢ $44 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $17 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $86 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $17 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $15 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $17 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $109 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $42 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records