Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc2dc…8b3a crypto 1466 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,543 (-4%) realized −$7,531 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%909W / 556L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day73.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12,474
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 414 -13.0% -21.3% 57% 56% -24.5%
≤30d 1263 -4.2% -13.3% 61% 59% -16.2%
≤90d 1465 -5.2% -14.2% 62% 54% -16.2%
all 1465 -5.2% -14.2% 62% 54% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 54% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 45% -24.2%
15% -29.9% 33% -31.6%
20% -36.8% 21% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$106 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$7,531
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses909 / 556
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1465 / 1466
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$115
Trades / day73.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 60¢ 24¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$82 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$18 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $206 +$120 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$80 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $169 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $123 +$38 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $204 −$74 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $160 +$45 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$93 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $207 −$23 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$52 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$68 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $31 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $19 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $70 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $204 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $128 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $164 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $75 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.17 · official $10.83 · 3500 history records