Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C2 0xc2db…0cf3 crypto 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,212 (-1%) realized +$5,039 · open −$9,251
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate81%55W / 13L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$6,777per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$3,047now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$377
14 days+$377
30 days+$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$2,352
sports 28% +$3,898
crypto 18% +$271
politics 11% −$12,005
other 7% +$676
culture 6% +$509
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +6.0% -4.1% 100% 20% -4.1%
≤30d 5 +6.0% -4.1% 100% 20% -4.1%
≤90d 8 +9.7% -0.7% 88% 25% -14.9%
all 68 +1.3% -8.4% 81% 9% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 9% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 1% -17.3%
15% -25.1% 1% -25.3%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$9,394) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$260 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$3,047
Realized+$5,039
Unrealized−$9,251
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses55 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage189d
Avg bet$6,777
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $10,931 $1,565 −$9,366 (-86%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1,367 $1,482 +$115 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,475 +$88 +6%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,299 +$36 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,279 +$158 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,043 +$88 +8%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $1,156 +$7 +1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $44 +$4 +8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $31,918 −$2,663 -8%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $30 +$14 +48%
76ers vs. Nuggets Mar 18 $10,368 +$1,140 +11%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 18 $17,466 −$111 -1%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $14,917 +$505 +3%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-03-11? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 11 $14,920 +$4 +0%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $9 $0 -6%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $500 +$10 +2%
Nets vs. Pistons Mar 08 $14,108 +$55 +0%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 07 $6,871 +$73 +1%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 06 $369 +$10 +3%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 06 $4,987 +$17 +0%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Mar 05 $6,794 +$121 +2%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $3,442 +$196 +6%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Mar 05 $17,526 +$655 +4%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 02 $12,222 +$121 +1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 02 $1,717 +$14 +1%
Thunder vs. Mavericks Mar 02 $13,003 +$812 +6%
Rockets vs. Wizards Mar 01 $0 $0 +8%
Grizzlies vs. Pacers Mar 01 $13,230 −$227 -2%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Mar 01 $11,273 −$86 -1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $2,691 −$50 -2%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $77,988 +$588 +1%
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? Feb 28 $5,383 +$152 +3%
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $4,258 +$528 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $9,624 +$19 +0%
Spurs vs. Nets Feb 26 $6,401 +$79 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $10,100 +$43 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $9,494 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $9,454 +$38 +0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Feb 25 $9,394 +$57 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 22 $4,511 −$52 -1%
UFC Fight Night: Juliana Miller vs. Carli Judice (Women's Flyweight, P Feb 22 $3,989 +$649 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $4,267 +$13 +0%
Nets vs. Cavaliers Feb 20 $3,805 +$463 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $3,731 +$7 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $2,303 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $2,783 −$3 -0%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $453 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $1,096 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $5,025 +$34 +1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 17 $6,491 +$119 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $46 4h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 7h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 7h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $14 8h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 9h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 9h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 11h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $4 14h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 14h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 15h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 16h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 16h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,046.96 · official $2,981.74 · 1961 history records