trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 6 | -32.0% | -38.5% | 33% | 17% | +54.1% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -32.0% | -38.5% | 33% | 17% | +54.1% |
| all | 21 | -3.2% | -12.4% | 38% | 33% | +29.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -12.4% | 33% | +29.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -20.8% | 24% | +16.8% |
| 15% | -28.5% | 24% | +5.5% |
| 20% | -35.5% | 19% | -4.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $2,504 | $1,462 | −$1,043 (-42%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | Yes | 18¢ | 57¢ | $35 | $112 | +$77 (+219%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | Yes | 18¢ | 40¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+129%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $16,538 | −$1,150 | -7% |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? | Jun 15 | $55 | −$55 | -100% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Jun 12 | $4,662 | +$338 | +7% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $2,400 | −$2,400 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? | Jun 08 | $2,400 | −$2,400 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $10,105 | +$20,262 | +200% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3? | Jun 23 | $97 | −$97 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? | Jun 23 | $350 | −$350 | -100% |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? | Jun 23 | $600 | −$600 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy purchases >10000 BTC June 3-9? | Jun 23 | $4,298 | +$823 | +19% |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? | Jun 17 | $3,520 | +$3,400 | +97% |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May? | Jun 03 | $6,160 | −$6,160 | -100% |
| Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | Jun 03 | $1,278 | +$8,722 | +683% |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? | Apr 07 | $10,960 | +$2,040 | +19% |
| Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Mar 24 | $7,050 | +$2,950 | +42% |
| Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Mar 23 | $4,029 | +$2,698 | +67% |
| Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025? | Feb 07 | $5,050 | −$50 | -1% |
| Ethena crash in 2024? | Jan 01 | $57 | −$57 | -100% |
| Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024? | Jan 01 | $88 | −$88 | -100% |
| Will Kraken IPO in 2024? | Jan 01 | $49 | −$49 | -100% |
| Starmer out as UK prime minister in 2024? | Jan 01 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |