Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc2d3…8e84 crypto 548 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate67%369W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$13
14 days+$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +8.2% -2.1% 61% 58% +4.7%
≤30d 547 -3.1% -12.4% 67% 63% -10.4%
≤90d 547 -3.1% -12.4% 67% 63% -10.4%
all 547 -3.1% -12.4% 67% 63% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 63% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 23% -19.0%
15% -28.4% 8% -26.8%
20% -35.4% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses369 / 178
Open positions1
Markets (closed)547 / 548
History coverage27d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 547 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 28¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 07 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.35 (match) · 1326 history records