Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc2d3…c62d other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$167 (+4%) realized +$167 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$90
other 30% $0
world 29% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +20.3% +8.8% 33% 17% +6.8%
≤30d 8 +14.5% +3.6% 25% 12% +3.0%
≤90d 18 +7.9% -2.4% 61% 6% -6.5%
all 18 +7.9% -2.4% 61% 6% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 6% -6.5%
10% -11.7% 6% -15.4%
15% -20.3% 6% -23.6%
20% -28.1% 6% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$2 · ×6.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.49 per $1 lost it wins $13.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage75d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 26 $62 −$2 -4%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 26 $49 +$66 +133%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 25 $39 −$2 -6%
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Jun 23 $86 −$3 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $4 $0 -6%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 02 $93 $0 +0%
Spread: Torino FC (-1.5) Apr 27 $425 +$10 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Apr 26 $427 $0 +0%
Spread: Kocaelispor (-2.5) Apr 19 $388 +$12 +3%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 18 $388 −$4 -1%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 18 $723 +$1 +0%
Spread: Club Libertad (-1.5) Apr 16 $359 +$34 +10%
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? Apr 15 $355 +$1 +0%
Spread: Gaziantep FK (-1.5) Apr 15 $330 +$24 +7%
Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5) Apr 13 $312 +$10 +3%
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Apr 12 $316 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL Yes $31 1h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL Yes $29 1h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY Yes $16 3h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY Yes $16 3h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY Yes $14 3h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY Yes $16 3h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $115 3h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY Yes $25 4h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY Yes $24 4h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL Yes $20 20h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL Yes $21 20h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY Yes $20 21h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY Yes $21 21h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL Yes $19 21h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL Yes $18 21h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY Yes $19 22h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY Yes $20 22h
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $40 2d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $42 2d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $42 2d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $44 2d
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL Yes $24 2d
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL Yes $23 2d
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY Yes $24 3d
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY Yes $23 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 22d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL Yes $45 23d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL Yes $48 23d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes $48 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records