Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C2 0xc2cf…65fd sports 1689 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$849 (+1%) realized +$845 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%1652W / 36L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$52
14 days+$76
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$121
weather 21% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +4.7% -5.2% 100% 25% -5.2%
≤30d 280 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 1688 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 1% -9.2%
all 1688 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 1% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$44 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$845
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1652 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1688 / 1689
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1688 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23? No 98¢ 100¢ $164 $168 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $40 +$1 +2%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Grêmio Novorizontino: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $802 +$39 +5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 +$5 +13%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $40 +$5 +12%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Aasane Fotball vs. Odds BK: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Aasane Fotball vs. Odds BK: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Lyn 1896 FK vs. Bryne FK: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
FK Haugesund vs. Ranheim: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
FK Haugesund vs. Ranheim: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
FK Haugesund vs. Ranheim: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
FK Haugesund vs. Ranheim: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Stroemsgodset IF vs. Raufoss IL: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Stroemsgodset IF vs. Raufoss IL: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Stroemsgodset IF vs. Raufoss IL: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
FC Lahti vs. Seinajoen JK: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Vaasan Palloseura vs. Kuopion Palloseura: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
FF Jaro vs. HJK Helsinki: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $40 +$1 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $40 +$1 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $253 +$4 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Helsingborgs IF vs. Landskrona BoIS: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $40 +$1 +3%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Poland: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $40 +$1 +1%
England vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
Iceland vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $38 $0 +1%
Iceland vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $36 +$1 +1%
Iceland vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Iceland vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
England vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
Osters IF vs. IFK Varnamo: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
Osters IF vs. IFK Varnamo: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $40 +$1 +2%
Sandvikens IF vs. Falkenbergs FF: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
Sandvikens IF vs. Falkenbergs FF: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
Sandvikens IF vs. Falkenbergs FF: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
IK Brage vs. Ljungskile SK: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $40 +$1 +1%
IK Brage vs. Ljungskile SK: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $164 7h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $40 19h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 19h
AA Ponte Preta vs. Grêmio Novorizontino: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 88¢ $40 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $802 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $40 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $40 5d
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $40 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 8d
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 8d
Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 9d
Stroemsgodset IF vs. Raufoss IL: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 9d
FK Haugesund vs. Ranheim: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 9d
Lyn 1896 FK vs. Bryne FK: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $40 9d
Aasane Fotball vs. Odds BK: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 9d
Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $40 9d
FK Haugesund vs. Ranheim: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 9d
Stroemsgodset IF vs. Raufoss IL: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $40 9d
Aasane Fotball vs. Odds BK: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 9d
Stroemsgodset IF vs. Raufoss IL: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $40 9d
FK Haugesund vs. Ranheim: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 9d
FK Haugesund vs. Ranheim: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 9d
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 10d
FC Lahti vs. Seinajoen JK: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 10d
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 10d
Vaasan Palloseura vs. Kuopion Palloseura: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $6 10d
FF Jaro vs. HJK Helsinki: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 98¢ $40 10d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $40 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.10 · official $168.10 (match) · 3500 history records