Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2cd…f3d1 crypto 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 1232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$773 (-5%) realized −$773 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate65%108W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$865
sports 6% −$26
other 4% +$46
tech 4% −$76
politics 2% −$94
economics 2% +$2
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.8% -17.5% 60% 20% -6.8%
≤30d 5 -8.8% -17.5% 60% 20% -6.8%
≤90d 96 -8.9% -17.6% 59% 52% -18.7%
all 166 -8.6% -17.3% 65% 44% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 44% -15.2%
10% -25.2% 34% -23.3%
15% -32.4% 28% -30.7%
20% -39.1% 20% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$86 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1232d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$773
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses108 / 58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage1232d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $154 −$13 -8%
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 22 $53 +$24 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1PM ET May 09 $206 −$196 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 09 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET May 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10AM ET May 09 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10AM ET May 09 $103 +$73 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9AM ET May 09 $75 +$64 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9AM ET May 09 $102 +$49 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 8AM ET May 09 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8AM ET May 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 09 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 09 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 09 $103 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 09 $98 +$59 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12PM ET May 08 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1PM ET May 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 08 $103 +$58 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 08 $103 +$77 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 08 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 08 $103 +$84 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 08 $105 +$69 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12PM ET May 07 $103 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 07 $103 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 07 $103 +$96 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 07 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11AM ET May 07 $84 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 07 $103 +$84 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1PM ET May 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10AM ET May 07 $103 +$61 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 07 $103 +$45 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 07 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 07 $104 +$56 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 07 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 07 $101 +$14 +14%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9AM ET May 07 $103 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7AM ET May 07 $103 +$32 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 1h
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $77 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $206 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 49d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $171 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $176 49d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $139 49d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $151 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 49d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $75 49d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 8AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 337 history records