Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2ca…4059 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$2
other 34% +$1
politics 23% +$1
crypto 5% −$1
sports 2% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 47% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 47% 0% -8.9%
all 42 -4.0% -13.1% 45% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 5% -9.3%
10% -21.4% 2% -18.0%
15% -29.0% 2% -25.9%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage475d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $43 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $8 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $14 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $5 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $46 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 -18%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? May 13 $1 +$1 +45%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 13 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $2 $0 +13%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 08 $17 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 08 $17 $0 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? May 06 $19 $0 +2%
Will the PPC win 2 seats in the next Canadian Election? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will the next UK election be called by June 30? Apr 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $19 $0 +2%
More Epstein files released in March? Mar 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 28 $19 $0 -1%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 23 $18 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $11 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $38 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $49 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $21 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $43 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $19 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $23 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $47 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $47 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $10 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $8 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $14 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records