Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C2 0xc2c8…22b6 other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$284 (-8%) realized −$284 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$68
14 days−$68
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$526
other 28% +$37
sports 6% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.8% -7.0% 57% 57% -21.6%
≤30d 10 +3.2% -6.6% 50% 50% -26.1%
≤90d 14 +4.2% -5.7% 57% 50% -18.4%
all 14 +4.2% -5.7% 57% 50% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 50% -18.4%
10% -14.7% 29% -26.2%
15% -23.0% 21% -33.3%
20% -30.5% 7% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$100 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$284
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage75d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $80 −$51 -64%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $63 +$17 +27%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $52 +$10 +20%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $36 +$16 +44%
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +36%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $131 −$12 -9%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 20 $145 −$49 -34%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $630 −$300 -48%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $43 −$3 -8%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 05 $181 +$122 +67%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 10 $44 +$8 +17%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 22 $1,601 −$184 -12%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $339 +$44 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 4m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 23¢ $29 5m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $80 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 78¢ $63 3h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $52 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $36 3d
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $34 3d
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $1 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $31 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 18¢ $85 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $85 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 19¢ $40 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $40 18d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 38¢ $53 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 49¢ $204 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 31¢ $55 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 54¢ $102 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 79¢ $89 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 78¢ $90 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 43d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $43 43d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $181 43d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $326 47d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 47d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 97¢ $51 47d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 38¢ $94 47d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 36¢ $155 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.93 · official $27.93 (match) · 141 history records