Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C2 0xc2c8…f437 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$363 (-6%) realized −$317 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days−$133
14 days−$316
30 days−$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$44
sports 30% −$328
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.7% -19.2% 57% 43% -17.9%
≤30d 31 -7.7% -16.4% 55% 52% -15.5%
≤90d 31 -7.7% -16.4% 55% 52% -15.5%
all 31 -7.7% -16.4% 55% 52% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 52% -15.5%
10% -24.4% 42% -23.6%
15% -31.7% 35% -30.9%
20% -38.4% 16% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$105 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$484
Realized−$317
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage14d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $20 −$10 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France to win the second half? Jun 26 $228 +$150 +66%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $214 +$14 +7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $394 −$390 -99%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 −$7 -14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $295 +$55 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$95 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $353 −$217 -62%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$101 +198%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $544 +$78 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$46 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 +$92 +180%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $113 +$97 +86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $402 +$97 +24%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $504 +$54 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$33 -65%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $71 +$28 +40%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 1h
France to win the second half? SELL Yes 99¢ $378 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 59¢ $228 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $228 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 89¢ $214 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $213 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $394 5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $44 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $295 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $200 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $135 9d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $353 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 10d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $126 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $303 10d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $57 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 10d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $152 11d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $101 11d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $101 11d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $101 11d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $101 11d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $139 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $622 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $483.81 · official $483.81 (match) · 79 history records