Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C2 0xc2c5…4502 crypto 1539 markets active 0h ago coverage 194d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 194d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$171 (-0%) realized −$91 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate92%1469W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,493
7 days−$1,461
14 days−$1,461
30 days−$1,461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$72
world 6% +$58
other 5% −$361
sports 2% +$75
politics 0% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -74.9% -77.2% 13% 10% -73.1%
≤30d 92 -74.9% -77.2% 13% 10% -73.1%
≤90d 97 -72.8% -75.4% 15% 10% -60.7%
all 1593 -4.8% -13.9% 92% 1% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 1% -13.7%
10% -22.1% 1% -22.0%
15% -29.6% 1% -29.5%
20% -36.5% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$23 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$1,328
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1469 / 124
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1593 / 1539
History coverage194d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $285 $298 +$13 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 60¢ $274 $212 −$62 (-23%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $191 $199 +$8 (+4%)
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 95¢ 92¢ $95 $92 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 50¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 95¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 32¢ $99 $49 −$50 (-51%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 98¢ $30 $48 +$18 (+59%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 85¢ 92¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+9%)
Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 92¢ 92¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 47¢ $26 $24 −$3 (-11%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Decibel FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 92¢ 78¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 18¢ $11 17m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $30 48m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $30 49m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 50m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 50m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 51m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 52m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $16 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $37 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $9 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $15 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $26 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 42¢ $17 14h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $50 20h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $30 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $41 23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 75¢ $40 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 26¢ $8 36h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $25 46h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $16 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 46h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $30 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 46h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $17 46h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,327.68 · official $1,327.68 (match) · 3500 history records