Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C2 0xc2c5…fbe1 crypto 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+1%) realized +$55 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate95%133W / 7L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$49
other 15% +$1
tech 7% +$2
weather 3% $0
sports 1% −$1
finance 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 38 +0.5% -9.1% 97% 5% -5.3%
≤90d 96 -4.3% -13.4% 94% 3% -8.2%
all 140 -2.3% -11.6% 95% 8% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 8% -8.2%
10% -20.1% 4% -17.0%
15% -27.8% 1% -25.0%
20% -34.9% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.74 per $1 lost it wins $4.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses133 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)140 / 147
History coverage168d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? No 97¢ 94¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 74¢ 71¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 60¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $59 +$39 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on May 29? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on May 28? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - ESL Challenger League No May 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26? May 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 26? May 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 18 $50 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics May 15 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or below on May 15? May 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 10? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $3 6d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 13d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 18d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 19d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.50 · official $84.50 (match) · 305 history records