Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc2c3…0e32 crypto 1476 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 226d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,178 (-0%) realized −$1,178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%813W / 687L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 227d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$2,581
sports 11% −$4,085
other 4% +$309
tech 1% −$799
world 0% −$398
politics 0% +$457
weather 0% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -46.3% -51.5% 41% 32% -57.7%
≤30d 62 -48.9% -53.8% 39% 31% -58.3%
≤90d 94 -34.7% -40.9% 47% 37% -43.6%
all 1500 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 51% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 51% -10.8%
10% -20.1% 46% -19.3%
15% -27.8% 39% -27.1%
20% -34.9% 33% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$126 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses813 / 687
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1500 / 1476
History coverage227d ⚠
Avg bet$166
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1500 Trades
no open positions (459 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 1PM ET Jun 27 $200 −$200 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $64 −$64 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $830 −$830 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $92 −$92 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $132 −$132 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 10AM ET Jun 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 3PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $187 −$187 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $160 −$160 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $71 −$71 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 11, 3AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $69 −$50 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $39 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $122 −$90 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $384 −$384 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $285 +$97 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $243 +$40 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $203 +$42 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $193 +$36 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $151 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $77 −$48 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $259 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$48 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $128 +$73 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $18 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $19 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $20 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $303 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records