Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:55:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2c3…4da3 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$32 (-9%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$16
other 26% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -14.5% -22.6% 43% 43% -10.0%
≤30d 14 -14.5% -22.6% 43% 43% -10.0%
≤90d 14 -14.5% -22.6% 43% 43% -10.0%
all 14 -14.5% -22.6% 43% 43% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 43% -10.0%
10% -30.0% 43% -18.7%
15% -36.8% 36% -26.5%
20% -43.0% 36% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 +$10 +65%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$31 +102%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$57 +116%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $131 +$32 +25%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $74 −$73 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -57%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 31¢ $25 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 78¢ $61 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $30 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $15 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $4 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $107 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 37¢ $163 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $49 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 21¢ $41 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 34¢ $90 5h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 46¢ $74 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $36 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $13 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 3d
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 14¢ $1 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $1 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Qatar 99¢ $3 3d
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes $1 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 65¢ $2 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records