Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc2c0…01ed
world · 74 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
+$22 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$28 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$187
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses34 / 37
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage465d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 3 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $186 $186 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 75¢ 80¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 62¢ 80¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $91 +$4 +5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $292 +$4 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $15 −$4 -27%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $274 −$8 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $230 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $254 +$3 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $8 −$4 -47%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $154 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $190 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $386 +$11 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $10 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $268 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $205 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $63 +$15 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $178 +$5 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $187 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $188 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $166 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $186 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $24 +$4 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $1,340 +$3 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $1,034 +$5 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $60 −$4 -7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 05 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 06 $7 $0 -1%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 05 $1 $0 +21%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $7 +$1 +11%
Will 'Senshi' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 20 May 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $4 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 71% +$25
politics 16% +$5
other 12% $0
sports 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $122 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $64 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $56 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $39 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $91 40h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 43h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 44h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $167 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $120 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $62 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $60 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $141 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $211 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $9 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $5 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $6 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $104 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $111 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.5% -13.6% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 26 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 28 -1.4% -10.8% 39% 7% -9.0%
all 71 -3.2% -12.4% 48% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 7% -9.1%
10% -20.8% 1% -17.8%
15% -28.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.58 · official $185.69 (match) · 275 history records