Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2bd…9d3e other 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$15
politics 32% −$13
sports 14% −$20
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 138 -1.8% -11.2% 7% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage133d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $193 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $244 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $409 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $250 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $193 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $252 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $603 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $222 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 17 $233 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $255 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $427 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 10 $248 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $232 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $557 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $240 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $234 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $192 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $235 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $252 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $195 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $236 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $227 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $399 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $223 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $226 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $234 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $177 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $375 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $178 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 11m
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $28 42h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 2d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 3d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $193 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $193 26d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $244 27d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $244 28d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $237 28d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $237 28d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $250 28d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $250 29d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $193 29d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $193 30d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $252 30d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $252 31d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 31d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 31d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $232 33d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $232 33d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $176 33d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $176 34d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $177 34d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $177 34d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $229 34d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $229 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 399 history records