Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc2b9…9e85
other · 75 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$15 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses30 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)65 / 75
History coverage64d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 10 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$30
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+16%)
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? Yes 65¢ 73¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+13%)
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $14 +$4 +30%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $11 +$3 +28%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $4 +$3 +73%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin Jun 11 $17 +$3 +18%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 11 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -10%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 05 $21 +$12 +55%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2026 mee Jun 04 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 04 $26 +$8 +31%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th May 22 $13 +$3 +25%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest May 22 $23 −$1 -5%
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate af May 20 $15 −$10 -70%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 11 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 $0 -5%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 $0 -6%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Gifu win on 2026-05-06? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-06? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-06? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 6? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? May 06 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +91%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $1 −$1 -59%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 06 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 06 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 06 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 06 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 06 $2 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 06 $1 $0 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 06 $1 $0 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 06 $1 $0 +14%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 06 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 06 $3 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 06 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 06 $2 +$1 +71%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $3 +$4 +140%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 +$1 +126%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 $0 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% −$6
economics 30% +$20
crypto 10% −$2
tech 7% +$5
finance 4% +$2
world 3% $0
politics 2% −$2
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 28m
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 29m
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 48m
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 50m
Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 1h
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 1h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 20h
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO SELL Yes 96¢ $18 30h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 94¢ $11 31h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 94¢ $7 31h
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 70¢ $14 2d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin SELL Yes 87¢ $14 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 60¢ $5 2d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 60¢ $3 2d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 60¢ $3 2d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin SELL Yes 86¢ $5 2d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 61¢ $3 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 31¢ $4 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 33¢ $4 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5d
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 81¢ $9 5d
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% +3.6%
≤30d 14 +12.9% +2.2% 57% 57% +2.4%
≤90d 65 -2.9% -12.1% 46% 38% -6.6%
all 65 -2.9% -12.1% 46% 38% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 38% -6.6%
10% -20.5% 32% -15.5%
15% -28.2% 23% -23.7%
20% -35.3% 17% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.21 · official $64.21 (match) · 232 history records