Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc2b9…51dc crypto 481 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (209 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$935 (-4%) realized −$767 · open −$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%271W / 204L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day208.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$751
14 days+$1,035
30 days+$1,104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$19
other 11% +$954
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (209 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -12.0% -20.3% 58% 30% -14.9%
≤30d 475 -1.9% -11.2% 57% 43% -5.4%
≤90d 475 -1.9% -11.2% 57% 43% -5.4%
all 475 -1.9% -11.2% 57% 43% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover208.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 43% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 37% -14.5%
15% -27.5% 36% -22.7%
20% -34.6% 35% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$40 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1,318
Realized−$767
Unrealized−$168
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses271 / 204
Open positions9
Markets (closed)475 / 481
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day208.6
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $356 $352 −$5 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $419 $331 −$88 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $278 $261 −$17 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $171 $184 +$13 (+8%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $160 $130 −$30 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 75¢ 98¢ $38 $49 +$11 (+30%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $6 −$5 (-44%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 21¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $65 −$15 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $38 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $27 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $36 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $8 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $33 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $22 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $13 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $13 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $30 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $19 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $29 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,317.75 · official $1,317.98 (match) · 3500 history records