Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C2 0xc2b9…631b world 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$231 (-36%) realized −$321 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$90
world 36% −$219
sports 16% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-75.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -73.0% -75.6% 25% 0% -96.9%
all 4 -73.0% -75.6% 25% 0% -96.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.6% 0% -96.9%
10% -77.9% 0% -97.2%
15% -80.1% 0% -97.5%
20% -82.0% 0% -97.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -97% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$107 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized−$321
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage47d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $200 $293 +$93 (+47%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY No 11¢ $103 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 38d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 39d
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 41d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 41d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 43d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.35 · official $390.35 (match) · 33 history records