Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:07:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2b4…2ce6 sports 415 markets active 2d ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$474 (-1%) realized −$474 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%240W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$512est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$610
14 days−$104
30 days−$585
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$884
other 1% +$125
world 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -8.1% -16.8% 49% 49% -18.0%
≤30d 236 -0.6% -10.1% 58% 56% -11.4%
≤90d 415 +0.9% -8.7% 58% 55% -11.2%
all 415 +0.9% -8.7% 58% 55% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 55% -11.2%
10% -17.4% 50% -19.7%
15% -25.4% 44% -27.4%
20% -32.7% 35% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$90 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$474
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses240 / 175
Est. fees paid−$512
Open positions0
Markets (closed)415 / 415
History coverage47d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 415 Trades
no open positions (152 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $39 −$38 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $37 +$32 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $44 −$44 -99%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $59 −$58 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 13 $62 −$2 -3%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $51 +$10 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$22 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $334 −$331 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $303 +$61 +20%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $198 −$196 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $173 −$170 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $184 −$59 -32%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $360 +$372 +103%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $258 −$254 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $279 −$275 -99%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $148 −$145 -98%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $255 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $164 −$161 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $285 +$375 +132%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $146 +$64 +44%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $254 +$259 +102%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$113 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $138 +$69 +50%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $206 +$340 +165%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $134 +$157 +117%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $180 +$161 +90%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $130 −$128 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $85 +$40 +48%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 11 $82 +$153 +188%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $79 +$87 +109%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $268 −$264 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $124 +$118 +95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $203 +$27 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $241 −$238 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $206 +$35 +17%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $200 −$196 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 200.5 Jun 11 $176 +$32 +18%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $199 +$176 +89%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $150 −$147 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $219 −$216 -99%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $230 +$257 +112%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $99 +$82 +82%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $87 +$197 +227%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $29 +$36 +123%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 199.5 Jun 09 $125 +$21 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $76 −$75 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $31 42h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $39 42h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $37 46h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $10 46h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $34 46h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $59 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 SELL Over 82¢ $60 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 BUY Over 84¢ $62 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $52 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 35¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 60¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $34 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $52 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 69¢ $49 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 69¢ $99 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 75¢ $64 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL Vitality 85¢ $364 4d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 62¢ $198 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $173 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 47¢ $125 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 70¢ $303 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 68¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $133 4d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $733 4d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $99 4d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $101 4d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $259 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 888 history records